You've said it. We've all said it. "I think they're serious." "They seem ready." "I've got a good feeling about this one."
And then they ghost. Or drag their feet for six months. Or "decide to keep renting."
Gut feel is not a forecast. It's a guess dressed up as intuition. And it costs you time, energy, and deals.
What is close probability?
Close probability is a percentage (1–99%) that tells you how likely this buyer is to close a transaction in the next 90 days.
It's not a magic number. It's calculated from the same inputs as readiness score, with extra weight on timeline, pre-approval status, and behavioral signals.
• 80%+ close probability: focus here, high likelihood of closing soon • 50–79%: solid prospects, worth consistent attention • 30–49%: nurture, not ready yet • <30%: long-term leads or tire-kickers
Why percentages beat feelings
Because you can't measure a feeling. You can't track it over time. You can't compare two buyers and say "this one is 73% likely and that one is 48%." You just have "good feeling" and "bad feeling."
Close probability is measurable, comparable, and consistent. Same inputs, same formula, every time. No mood swings. No recency bias. No "I like this person so I think they'll close."
It's not perfect. But it's better than gut feel by a mile.
How to use it
Open your pipeline. Sort by close probability. The top 5-10 buyers? That's your focus list for the week.
Call them first. Follow up fastest. Send them the best listings. Because the data says they're most likely to close.
Everyone else? Still in the pipeline. But you're not spreading yourself thin pretending they're all equal. You're focusing where the probability is highest.
See close probability in action →
Realtee IQ — Forecast, don't guess.